Articles authored by Barry Gilbert
A Strategic Approach to Factor Investing
Today’s blog is a follow-up to Carson’s VP, Investment Strategist Grant Engelbart’s insightful recent discussion of factor investing and alpha opportunities, “Enhancing Portfolio Management.” Factors are a theme we regularly return to. Grant also covered factor investing in a piece earlier this year called “Factor Investing 2024,” and our Portfolio Manager Mike Lawrence covered the …
The Drivers of Long-Term Stock Returns
We sometimes get questions about why we think stocks will continue to go up in the long run. That gives me an opportunity to refer back to some of our favorite long-term investing charts that capture our views. Almost exactly a year ago, our Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese wrote a piece called, “This Is …
The Perils of Stock Picking
Being an effective stock picker is a specialized skill that requires a combination of deep knowledge of a company’s business model and prospects, fierce self-discipline, a hard-earned feel for market psychology, and knowledge of portfolio construction to help limit risk. In the end, you need to have an informational advantage that isn’t already “priced in” …
What May Be Next for Interest Rates
As investors look ahead to the post-election rate environment next year, there are a lot of questions, especially with the recent sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Like 2023, when interest rates started and ended the year in the same place with a whole lot happening in between, interest rates have been on quite …
10 Quick Election Takeaways
Well, election day is now behind us, and while there’s some dust to settle yet, we now know a lot this morning. First, President-elect Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States, joining Grover Cleveland as the only president to win non-consecutive terms. Trump also won the popular vote for the first …
12 Things to Know About Watching the Election Results
Well, election day is finally here. An estimated 79 million ballots have already been cast through mail-in and early in-person voting, or just over 50% of 2020’s total ballots cast, but this evening we end the voting process and, as polls close, begin the counting process. Carson Investment Research has been covering the election and …
How Markets Might Respond to Post-Election Uncertainty
Have you heard? This is a tight election and it’s going down to the wire. Election Day is now five days away but an estimated 58.4 million ballots have already been cast, or more than 1/3 of the total votes cast in 2020. We would still call the presidential race a near coin toss, although …
16 Charts (and Tables) to Know This Election Year Revisited
“Americans will always do the right thing – after exhausting all other possibilities.” -Winston Churchill The Carson Investment Research Team began covering the election back in March with our “16 Charts and Tables) to Know This Election Year.” With Election Day now 11 days away and early voting taking place in many states, we thought …
The Starting Point for Effective Portfolio Management
I’ve looked at thousands of portfolios over my career, most of them made up of mutual funds and/or ETFs but sometimes with individual stocks and bonds thrown in or even making up the entire portfolio. One thing that has repeatedly struck me is how sometimes adding “more,” more positions, more asset types, more specialized pieces, …
Peak Interest Rates One Year Later
Tomorrow, October 19, will mark the one-year anniversary of the peak in the 10-year Treasury yield. According to CBOE’s US Treasury Yield Index, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.99% on Thursday, October 19, 2023. Even with the recent backup in yields, that’s about 0.9%-points above the current level. Bond returns over the last year …