Articles authored by Barry Gilbert

“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip Back on January 3rd, to mark the swearing in of the 119th Congress, we shared seven risks to our bullish policy outlook. That was still 17 days before inauguration day. Now we’ve seen the new administration’s policies gel …

For the second consecutive decline of 5% or more in the S&P 500, long Treasuries have been playing defense, at least so far. Here “playing defense” means a return better than short Treasuries, although over short periods of time that’s usually near zero. I’m using long Treasuries here as a proxy for bonds, because they …

Let’s get it on the table. Of all the charts that raise concerns for me about the economy right now, despite a still solid base case, the one below worries me the most. Not for what it represents in itself but for what it says about where we are in the cycle in general. The …

The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% last week ahead of inauguration day, helped by some positive inflation news and a strong start to earnings season. The move pushed the index into positive territory for the year, although still 1.6% below the December 6, 2024 all-time high as of Friday. Monday was inauguration day, a good moment …

“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip The 119th Congress is being sworn in today, with Republicans taking over majority leadership in the Senate and holding onto the House with the narrowest majority in the history of the Republican party. So we thought it would …

Well, that’s a wrap on 2024. The S&P 500 finished the year with a total return of 25%, the second consecutive year over 20%, which hasn’t happened since 1998 and 1999. (Lest the bubble brigade raise an eyebrow at that last year, that was the fifth consecutive year of a total return over 20%.) There’s …

Today’s blog is a follow-up to Carson’s VP, Investment Strategist Grant Engelbart’s insightful recent discussion of factor investing and alpha opportunities, “Enhancing Portfolio Management.” Factors are a theme we regularly return to. Grant also covered factor investing in a piece earlier this year called “Factor Investing 2024,” and our Portfolio Manager Mike Lawrence covered the …

We sometimes get questions about why we think stocks will continue to go up in the long run. That gives me an opportunity to refer back to some of our favorite long-term investing charts that capture our views. Almost exactly a year ago, our Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese wrote a piece called, “This Is …

Being an effective stock picker is a specialized skill that requires a combination of deep knowledge of a company’s business model and prospects, fierce self-discipline, a hard-earned feel for market psychology, and knowledge of portfolio construction to help limit risk. In the end, you need to have an informational advantage that isn’t already “priced in” …

As investors look ahead to the post-election rate environment next year, there are a lot of questions, especially with the recent sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Like 2023, when interest rates started and ended the year in the same place with a whole lot happening in between, interest rates have been on quite …