Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

We’ve consistently said for several months now that inflation was last year’s problem. The latest consumer price index (CPI) data confirms this. Headline CPI is up 2.5% year over year (y/y) through August, which is the slowest pace in three and half years. Here’s some perspective on how far we’ve come: A year ago (August …

The August payroll report was kind of ok on the face of it. Payrolls grew by 142,000 in August, below expectations for a 165,000 increase but these things are noisy. The unemployment rate also declined from 4.3% to 4.2%, which is welcome. However, read one step beyond headlines and it’s fairly clear the labor market …

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to start the rate cut cycle in September. In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Powell explicitly said that the “time has come for policy to adjust.” In fact, minutes from the last Fed meeting in July indicated that some members thought the committee should have actually reduced rates …

With both the Republican and Democratic party conventions over, it’s safe to say we’re in the home stretch of the Presidential election. In fact, early voting starts in 7 days in North Carolina, a key swing state. That also means campaign rhetoric is heating up, and promises are being made—some wild ones, too, but this …

I just wrapped up four weeks of a sabbatical leave, which Carson allows after five years on the job. Strange as it may sound, taking four weeks off is not easy, but summer is usually a fairly quiet time (or so I thought). My family and I headed to Europe for a couple of weeks. …

President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, although the endorsement does not necessarily mean she will win the nomination. The change in the Democratic ticket does not change our fundamental view of the election, which we discussed at length in our recently …

The US economy mostly runs on the back of household consumption, and so the manufacturing sector is usually bit of an afterthought. Though its salience has increased recently amid the 2024 presidential election campaign, and especially former President’s Trump’s preference for a weaker dollar to boost the export sector. Still, the headline news from the …

In my opinion, the June inflation report was picture perfect. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% in June, which was below expectations. Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose just 0.1%. These were below expectations, and combined with April and May data, reverses the “heat” we saw in the …

The stock market has been on a tear for more than 18 months now, with the S&P 500 up 44% from December 31, 2022 to July 8, 2024. We’ve consistently maintained that momentum begets momentum, and my colleague, Ryan Detrick, has written time and again as to why there’s more than enough reason to be …

I’ve noted in the past how the US economy primarily relies on consumer spending, and since consumer spending is driven by income growth, the employment situation is pretty much the ballgame. And right now, things are getting a tad uncomfortable. We’re not quite worried yet, but simply recognize that risks are rising. What’s running strong, …