Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research released our 2025 Outlook: Animal Spirits on Tuesday. As we highlighted there, we think that economic strengths clearly outweigh areas of weakness in the year ahead, and the opportunities likely have a higher probability of coming to fruition than the threats. We believe that economic momentum, an easing Federal Reserve (Fed), and …

As we look ahead to 2025, we know the scars of high inflation in 2022 and the higher interest rates that came with it are still with us. We’ve seen it in global elections, where incumbents have been rejected across the political spectrum. We’ve seen it in consumer sentiment surveys, which have improved but remain …

There have been a few signs that risks to the labor market are tilted to the downside, but the December payroll report went a long way towards easing them. The economy created 256,000 jobs in December, blowing past expectations for a 165,000 increase. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. …

The S&P 500 followed up on 2023’s 26.3% total return with a 25% return in 2024. And unlike in 2023, this was largely a story of rising profits, and expectations of profit growth continuing. The S&P 500’s forward 12-month earnings per share ended the year at $272, a 12.4% increase from its value of $242 …

As we get ready to release our 2025 Outlook, I thought now would be a good time to revisit our 2024 Outlook. I recognize this is rare in our world, as it’s not often you see strategists revisit and reevaluate their calls. We don’t really think of ourselves as forecasters in the strict sense of …

The Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%-points at their December meeting, taking the federal funds rate to the 4.25-4.5% range. This was expected, but it was completely swept aside. The market reaction should give you a sense of how bad it was: The S&P 500 fell almost 3% on Wednesday (December …

The dollar has been on a tear since the end of September, and especially post-election. It took a bit of a breather over the Thanksgiving week but swung up again over the last couple of weeks. The dollar is now up over 6% since the end of September (through December 12th).  Just before the Thanksgiving …

November inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed right along expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.3% and is up 2.7% from last year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.3%, and is up 3.3% year over year. These numbers are clearly over the Fed’s 2% target. Cue the cries …

The November payroll report was going to be a tricky one to parse because of a bounce back from hurricane effects (which pulled down October payrolls) and the resolution of the strike at Boeing. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October …

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, was quite upbeat about recent economic data during a moderated conversation with the New York Times Dealbook. He noted that the since the Fed’s September meeting, growth has improved, while downside risks to the labor market have declined. At the same time inflation has come in a little higher. As …