Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

It’s not like we needed a lot more proof that the economy is strong. If you listen to the doomsayers, it always seems like the economy is hanging on the edge of a precipice. Never mind the latest GDP report card, which showed the economy grew 3.1% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2023. Of course, it’s …

Consumer confidence has been rising recently. Maybe it’s Taylor Swift, and her weekly Sunday appearances. Or maybe it’s rising stock prices, rising home prices, and falling gas prices. Ultimately, perhaps the best signal to draw from rising confidence is that the labor market is strong. Keep in mind that the close to 70% of the …

We got a rollicking GDP report on Thursday, showing the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.3% after adjusting for inflation. That was well above forecasts of 1.8%. Yet again, the economy continues to be underestimated – a topic we’ve discussed on these pages time and time again. By now we were supposed to …

If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, read on, but maybe grab a cup of coffee or your favorite beverage. M2 is a measure of money in the economy, and right now it’s falling, which has led to any number of overhyped worries, including a deflationary recession and/or a stock market crash, as people are …

Last year, the Carson Investment Research team did not see eye to eye on leading economic indicators compared to the widely used Conference Board Leading Economic Index. For 2024, our proprietary leading economic index (LEI) for the U.S. points to on-trend economic growth and remains far from a recession signal. Our index includes more than …

We just released our 2024 Market Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye”. We took an unpopular contrarian stance in 2023, calling for the economic expansion to continue and stocks to post solid gains. This was based on what we saw in the data, and since then consensus opinion has moved toward our view in 2024. Still, …

While the Carson Investment Research team’s economic views for 2024 are more aligned with the consensus than in 2023, we take a different view on what the drivers of economic growth will be, emphasizing the upside from productivity growth that may differentiate the current central bank-tightening cycle from typical cases in the past. That view …

We’re releasing our 2024 outlook this week, and a big part of our investment process involves understanding the economic backdrop. To that end, Carson Investment Research produces a Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the US and 29 other countries, each one custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are …

The December payroll was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate staying at 3.7%. That’s the 23rd straight month in which the unemployment rate has remained below 4%, the longest stretch since the late 1960s – which should tell you that the economy is in a healthy place. …

We’re just days away from closing out 2023, and from an economy and markets perspective, the year really couldn’t have gone better: Stocks have gained more than 25%. The unemployment rate is at 3.7% despite an aggressive Federal Reserve. The economy is on track to have grown more than 2.5% after adjusting for inflation, which …