Insights Investments

An underrated story right now is the US dollar, which has appreciated by over 6% since the end of September. A big driver of the dollar is relative growth rates between the US and everyone else. So, the outlook for the dollar really depends on how you think the US economy will do relative to …

Nvidia delivered quarterly results largely in line with expectations. Quarterly revenue of $35.1 billion exceeded the $33.15 billion high end of guidance, earnings per share (“EPS”) of $0.81 exceeded FactSet consensus estimate of $0.75, and guidance for next quarter’s revenue of $36.8 – $38.3 billion bracketed FactSet consensus estimate of $37.1 billion. Many of these …

“Oh, those Carson guys are just permabulls.” Institutional CIO who has been dead wrong for years Are we permabulls? We get this question sometimes and it is a great question. (A permabull is someone who remains bullish on markets no matter what is happening.) On the surface we know that stocks usually go up, so …

With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings? This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy …

As investors look ahead to the post-election rate environment next year, there are a lot of questions, especially with the recent sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Like 2023, when interest rates started and ended the year in the same place with a whole lot happening in between, interest rates have been on quite …

Since news broke on June 12, 2024, that Tesla shareholders voted to reinstate CEO Elon Musk’s pay package, Tesla stock has returned +85.3% versus a gain of +10.3% for the broader S&P 500 (FactSet data, as of 11/12/2024 closing price). The investor base has clearly been catalyzed with recent events that includes the company’s ‘We, …

The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data held no surprises for markets, either to the downside or the upside. Since inflation had already normalized, that means the latest data confirms the pre-existing trend. Headline CPI rose 0.2% in October and is up 2.6% year over year. Core CPI (excluding food and energy), which is typically …

“We have two kinds of forecasters, the ones who don’t know and the ones who don’t know they don’t know” – John Kenneth Galbraith   In Part 1 of this blog, I discussed a framework for thinking about the economic outlook in 2025. There’s clearly a lot of policy uncertainty ahead. As the incoming Trump …

As the post-election market rally gains momentum, how can investors position themselves for what’s next? This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the economic implications of recent election results and a renewed Trump administration. From anticipated …

“No.” -Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell when asked if he would resign if President-elect Trump asked him to.   Yes, the election and huge stock market rally took all the headlines last week, but there was another very big event. The Fed cut interest rates again, by 0.25% (after the 0.50% cut in September) …

Amidst all the election news, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) November meeting almost went under the radar. The good news is that the Fed didn’t give us any surprises. As widely expected, they cut the federal funds rate by another 0.25%-points, taking it down to the 4.5-4.75% range. Fed Chair Powell pointed out that this is …