Why A Strong May Could Have Bulls Smiling
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain So much for Sell in May! With a day to go, we are looking at potentially the best month of May for the S&P 500 in 35 years. As we noted at the start of the month, the odds favored a big rally in May …
RIP Liberation Day?
Well, this came out of the blue, but a U.S. court essentially cancelled the tariffs that set off a global trade war (technically paused until July). The US Court of International Trade (USCIT) struck down all of the “IEEPA” tariffs imposed by President Trump. IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that was passed …
Talking with Dan Ives about the Future of Tech, AI and Innovation
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines. Broadcasting from Carson’s 2025 …
Why Mom and Pop Might Now Be the Smart Money
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway We’ve been talking a lot the how during this near bear market and historic bounce back of 2025, retail investors have been buying aggressively, while institutional money managers have been scared and underinvested. Historically, we’ve …
You Never Know
“You never know when you will get that call. Enjoy yourself.” Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group Today is the Friday before Memorial Day weekend, which is a day I will never forget. One year ago today my baby brother called me, which at first seemed similar to the thousands of other times …
How Meaningful Is the US Debt Downgrade by Moody’s?
Short answer: not very much. The longer answer is also pretty much the same thing, but it’s really the context around the debt downgrade, and especially the US fiscal situation, that raises important questions, not the downgrade by itself. Last Friday evening (May 16th), Moody’s finally joined their counterparts at S&P and Fitch in downgrading …
Talking About Everything With Skanda Amarnath
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts. Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, …
What Happened Last Week Was Rare and Likely Quite Bullish
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” Bob Dylan, Subterranean Homesick Blues What a week last week was, as the S&P 500 gained more than 3% on Monday after a 90-day pause in tariffs with China was announced. Incredibly, stocks gained the next four days as well. March 2003 was …
Autonomous Vehicles Accelerate
Autonomous Vehicles (‘AVs’) have rapidly shifted from hype to help. Long touted as a transformational technology, AVs have often been discussed with uncertain timelines for adoption. But recent breakthroughs from Waymo and Uber show accelerating usage and growing profitability—key signals that AVs may finally be here to stay. With momentum building, your next ride could …
Two Big Things to Keep an Eye On
In our 2025 Outlook, we highlighted the threat of tariffs and risk of elevated interest rates if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut. Well, both have manifested now. Average tariff rates, even after the China pause, are at the highest level since 1934 — rising from 2.4% at the start of the year to 17.8%. If …
Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump
Oil prices have collapsed in recent months, with WTI crude oil prices now closer to $60/barrel after hitting $80/barrel in mid-January. Prices are down over 10% from the beginning of the year, and over 20% from peak levels in January. Normally, you’d think this would translate to lower prices at the pump. But that’s not …