Investments
It’s All Transitory (On a Long Enough Timeline)
Life is transitory, and so are inflation shocks (caveat: on a long enough timeline). The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady in the 3.50-3.75 range at its March meeting, as expected. But all eyes were on the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (the “dot plot”), where each of 19 members jot down their estimates …
Sonu Varghese
March 19, 2026
11 Reasons Sentiment Says To Remain Bullish
“If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” General Patton The quote above is one I use all the time and I’d put it at my second most used quote, after Mark Twain’s “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” While our team remains constructive on this bull market and we don’t see …
Ryan Detrick
March 18, 2026
Strait to Trouble (Ep. 179)
The most dangerous shortages are the ones you don’t see coming. What happens when global oil flow is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bottleneck for the world economy? In Episode 179 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, …
Ryan Detrick
March 18, 2026
The Fed May Start Thinking About Raising Interest Rates
Let me start here: if inflation averages 2% over 10 years, that translates to an 18% cumulative loss of purchasing power, i.e., $10,000 of a typical basket of goods and services today would cost $12,190 in a decade. If inflation averages 3% over 10 years, that translates to a 26% cumulative loss of purchasing power, …
Sonu Varghese
March 17, 2026
Charts of the Week: Mar 9-13
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the current oil situation, labor markets, inflation, macro data, and historical comparisons to prior performances. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Mar. 9-13
Carson Research
March 16, 2026
The Bracketology of Bull Markets
March is synonymous with a “madness” in the air due to the NCAA tournament, which provides the country with a captivating energy that only comes once a year. The tournament is filled with underdog stories of schools and/or athletes, upsets that even the most calculated would not have predicted, and buzzer beaters that are heard …
Joel Riha-Aldrich
March 16, 2026
Some Bad News and Some Good News
“Don’t trust a skinny ice cream man.” Ben & Jerry’s Ben Cohen The volatility and confusion continue. On Monday, hope was the war in Iran would be over soon, but that quickly lost steam and crude oil soared back up close to $100/barrel later in the week. There are a couple ways to look …
Ryan Detrick
March 13, 2026
Markets in 2026 Are Looking a Lot Like 2025—That Could Be a Good Thing
Markets in 2026 are looking an awful lot like they did this time last year. Yes, the drivers are different, but the similarities are eerie. Let’s take a look (numbers as of Tuesday’s close)… The S&P 500 is down year to date. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is outperforming the S&P 500. Gold is having …
Barry Gilbert
March 12, 2026
The 60/40 Portfolio: A Historical Powerhouse or a Rate-Dependent Misinterpretation?
In the world of portfolio construction, the classic 60/40 split, 60% equities and 40% bonds, has long been hailed as a balanced approach to weathering market storms. It’s like the reliable minivan of investing: not flashy, but designed to get you through various terrains with a mix of growth potential and stability. But what if …
Harry McDonald
March 11, 2026
When Diversification Disappears
The last several years have been unusually favorable for investors. Equities have delivered strong returns, bonds have recovered meaningfully, and credit has remained resilient. For many portfolios, nearly everything has worked. And when everything works, diversification often goes unquestioned. There is an irony in how we respond to diversification, or more precisely, to correlation. When …
Kevin Bruce
March 11, 2026
Talking About AI with Steve Hou and Kai Wu (Ep. 178)
Artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines and investment flows, but understanding the technology behind it requires looking beyond the hype and into the structure of the ecosystem itself. In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with …
Ryan Detrick
March 11, 2026
Charts of the Week: March 2-6
Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the current oil situation, inflation, macro data, and how real assets may help during periods of elevated inflation. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Mar. …
Carson Research
March 9, 2026