7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip On July 20, we passed the first six months of the second Trump administration, or 1/8 of the way into Donald Trump’s second term. Over time we have been updating our view of potential policy risks, within the …
You’re Fired!
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the latest surprising jobs data, significant payroll revisions, and President Trump’s controversial firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen. Ryan and Sonu also provide insights into the Fed’s next moves, inflation challenges, …
Some Bad News and Some Good News
“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.” Oscar Wilde After stocks gained more than 2% in July, the first day of August landed with a thud, as the S&P 500 fell 1.60%, the first 1% drop since before Flag Day (June 13) and worst overall single day …
The Economy Is Currently Being Held Up By AI
This was a big week if you wanted to get a picture of the economy, inflation, and even policy (both monetary and tariffs). Here’s the big picture: The labor market is clearly slowing, despite a low headline unemployment rate of 4.2%. Soft payroll growth and easing wage growth means aggregate income growth is slowing. Inflation …
Here Comes August, Buckle Up
When asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton replied, “Because that’s where the money is.” I wish I knew why, but August is a month that tends to have a lot of out-of-the-blue scary events pop up and with that comes a good deal of market volatility. Who could forget last August? Stocks fell more …
Earnings Growth Continues to Support Market Gains
When it comes to stocks, in the long run earnings are everything since the ability to grow earnings gives stocks their fundamental value, and in the long run earnings have followed a fairly steady path, with higher margins really since early 2000 offsetting lower sales due to slower global growth. On the other hand, in …
Au Revoir, Trade War
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the recent easing of global trade tensions and how markets have responded positively. They dive into three popular market myths currently being debated, analyze corporate earnings, and provide their reasoning on why stocks …
Busting Three Myths
“Indecision may or may not be my problem.” Jimmy Buffett Stocks continue to trend higher, yet I’m noticing a few myths starting to show up that are meant to scare investors. In today’s blog, we are going myth busting! Myth 1: No, Market Breadth Isn’t Bad I’ll be honest, I don’t get where …
This Popular Economic Indicator Points to Recession But We’re Skeptical
One of the most popular economic indicators is the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), and it currently points to recession. The LEI has historically had a high correlation with GDP growth – the chart below shows year-over-year change in both. You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 1990, 2001 …
The Trade War Is Over. Thank You For Your Attention to This Matter.
In my opinion, the trade war is over. There may be more tariffs to come, especially a few large tariffs on August 1st on a bunch of countries (50% for Brazil!), plus sectoral tariffs on things like copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and electronics. But even those may be postponed (in fact, pharma tariffs may actually …
The Crazy Train Market?
“Of all the things I’ve lost, I miss my mind the most.” Ozzy Osbourne First off, sorry to hear the news of Ozzy passing at 76 years old. Just a couple of weeks ago he did his final show in Birmingham, England and it was so great to see him in his element one more …