Election Update Part 2: Potential Risks to the Outlook

We are now three weeks to election day, though about 4.7 million people have already voted. Most of those are mail-in ballot. About 55 million mail ballots have been requested (that’s 35% of the total votes cast in 2020), and 3.8 million have been returned so far. In part 1 of this election update, I …

Tesla’s Bold Vision: From FSD to Robots

Tesla recently hosted its “We Robot” event, showcasing recent production innovations such as the CyberCab and Optimus Robot. While the company typically hosts an annual demonstration of its latest technology, this year’s event was expected to be groundbreaking. Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X weeks before the event that “this will be one for …

Big Picture: Inflation Has Normalized

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a little more heat than expected in September. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month over month while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%. Cue the worries about resurgent inflation. But the big picture takeaway remains fundamentally positive, and there’s even good news in some of the details, which …

Ghosts of Elections Past: Some Lessons from 2016 and 2020

We are now within four weeks of election day, although early voting is already taking place in an increasing number of states. My colleague Sonu Varghese provided an excellent update on the election Tuesday. If you read it, you’ll notice it’s called Part 1. Watch for Part 2 next Tuesday. One of our top market …

Happy Second Birthday to the Bull Market 🎈🎂🎉

“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.” – Bertrand Russell, British philosopher First things first — our thoughts go out to everyone that has been impacted by Hurricane Helene and those in the path of Hurricane Milton. If …

The Bull Market Turns Two

Is the bull market’s two-year run a sign of stability or the start of a shake-up? In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what’s driving market strength and what’s ahead. With GDP growth, profit …

Election Update Part 1: Where the Odds Stand and What It Means

We have only four weeks to go to election day, although close to 2 million people have already voted, including close to half a million in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. We figured this would be a good time to do an update on where the race stands, and what it means (or could …

Under the Hood: Financials Earnings Preview

The close of the calendar quarter means the opening of earnings season. Investors this week will parse results from some of the largest financial institutions in the world including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, among others. Assessing the big picture, the financials sector (as proxied by XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) …

Good News Is Good News, for the Economy and Markets

There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. The unemployment rate has increased from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3% in July of this year. Hiring also seems to have pulled back a lot, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) telling us that the hiring …

The Year of the Active ETF

United States Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) assets just hit $10 Trillion for the first time. That is still around half of the assets in traditional open-end mutual funds but the gap is closing quickly. An increasingly larger part of this growth is coming from active ETFs, which have accounted for roughly a third of ETF inflows …

6 Reasons Q3 Was Extraordinary for Markets

Whether you’re engaged with the market every day or only once in a while, sometimes it’s easy to miss the forest for the trees. We just finished the third quarter of 2024, and really it was an extraordinary quarter. If I had to pick out one theme, it would be expanding market breadth, something we …

Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize

Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize

The economy is off to a strong start in 2024, with a strong employment picture and the Dow crossing 40,000 for the first time. Will it stay that way? Read It Now

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