Key Takeaways:
- Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there’s no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.
- The Fed’s Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.
- Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.
- Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.
- Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed’s reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.
- Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren’t signaling an imminent downturn.
- Pi Day & St. Patrick’s Day Fun: We discuss Chicago’s green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren’s firm got its name.
Resources:
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