A Strong Year Driven by Profits, More Than Overcoming Any Drag From Tariffs
The S&P 500 gained 17.8% over the last 11 months, including dividends. The November return of 0.1% was its 7th straight month of gains, and the index is now just 1% off its all-time highs. While the index was near flat for the month of November, next 12-month earnings rose another 2%, which meant earnings …
Back to December
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return …
Seven Reasons December Should Be a Strong Month for Stocks
“I go back to December all the time.” Taylor Swift from her song Back to December I’m going to sound like an old guy, but can you believe it is December already!? Last week saw one of the best weeks of the year for stocks, as it was your typical late November seasonal strength. The …
The Growing (and Evolving) Use of AI
The use of artificial intelligence in modern workplaces is growing and evolving. Two recent studies – McKinsey’s ‘The state of AI in 2025’ and Perplexity’s ‘Perplexity at Work’ – offer some insights into both trends and help illustrate the breadth of AI adoption. AI Has Become an Imperative The use of AI in the workplace …
The Toll We Pay To Invest
First off, happy day before Thanksgiving! We hope everyone has a fun day with family, turkey, naps, and football. My Bengals are on in the evening, so odds are they’ll ruin my day, but we’ll see. Now let’s get to it. After a 38% rally in about six and a half months, the S&P 500 …
Talking Macro and Charts with Jurrien Timmer
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, …
Six (Or Seven) Reasons to Be Thankful as Investors
“Being diversified is always having to say you are sorry.” Old investment axiom One of the bigger mysteries of 2025 is what exactly is with the whole “six seven” thing all the kids keep saying? I have kids and I hear it all the time, but I’ll admit, I still don’t understand it and …
Getting Big by Selling Slim – Eli Lilly’s Rise to $1 Trillion
Eli Lilly’s market cap eclipsed $1 trillion in Friday’s trading session (according to FactSet data). They became the first healthcare company to achieve this milestone. The simple explanation for how this company joined the four-comma club is ‘diversified growth’ as a product of research and development. The company has cultivated numerous blockbuster drugs culminating with …
Thinking About 2026
“There was a statistician and he put his feet in a bucket of ice and head in the oven. When asked how he felt he answered ‘pretty good on average’.” Old statistics joke Yes, 2025 isn’t over yet, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t start thinking about 2026. In fact, we are actively writing and …
Nvidia Beats Expectations
Nvidia’s latest quarterly results exceeded both the company’s and investor expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $57.0 billion which exceeded the $54.0 billion of revenue the company guided for. This $3 billion beat was their strongest beat ever and underscores the demand the company is seeing. Earnings per share (“EPS”) of $1.30 exceeded the …
Where Is the Value?
The recent drawdown from all-time highs (-5% intraday at the time of this writing) has done nothing to tarnish a great year for broad equity markets. With any strong run in the market, examining where valuations end up as a result is a worthwhile exercise. Often, price appreciation is warranted on the back of strong …