The Toll We Pay To Invest
First off, happy day before Thanksgiving! We hope everyone has a fun day with family, turkey, naps, and football. My Bengals are on in the evening, so odds are they’ll ruin my day, but we’ll see. Now let’s get to it. After a 38% rally in about six and a half months, the S&P 500 …
Talking Macro and Charts with Jurrien Timmer
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, …
Six (Or Seven) Reasons to Be Thankful as Investors
“Being diversified is always having to say you are sorry.” Old investment axiom One of the bigger mysteries of 2025 is what exactly is with the whole “six seven” thing all the kids keep saying? I have kids and I hear it all the time, but I’ll admit, I still don’t understand it and …
Getting Big by Selling Slim – Eli Lilly’s Rise to $1 Trillion
Eli Lilly’s market cap eclipsed $1 trillion in Friday’s trading session (according to FactSet data). They became the first healthcare company to achieve this milestone. The simple explanation for how this company joined the four-comma club is ‘diversified growth’ as a product of research and development. The company has cultivated numerous blockbuster drugs culminating with …
Thinking About 2026
“There was a statistician and he put his feet in a bucket of ice and head in the oven. When asked how he felt he answered ‘pretty good on average’.” Old statistics joke Yes, 2025 isn’t over yet, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t start thinking about 2026. In fact, we are actively writing and …
Nvidia Beats Expectations
Nvidia’s latest quarterly results exceeded both the company’s and investor expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $57.0 billion which exceeded the $54.0 billion of revenue the company guided for. This $3 billion beat was their strongest beat ever and underscores the demand the company is seeing. Earnings per share (“EPS”) of $1.30 exceeded the …
Where Is the Value?
The recent drawdown from all-time highs (-5% intraday at the time of this writing) has done nothing to tarnish a great year for broad equity markets. With any strong run in the market, examining where valuations end up as a result is a worthwhile exercise. Often, price appreciation is warranted on the back of strong …
Volatility, May I Meet You?
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks …
Three Record Breaking Streaks Are Over. How Worried Should Bulls Be?
“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving.” Albert Einstein Three long streaks ended yesterday and in today’s blog we will take a closer look at what it might mean. First off, I didn’t plan on writing this blog today. In fact, I had a longer blog all …
Surfing the AI Wave, and Avoiding a Wipeout
Two years ago, when we were writing our 2024 Outlook, we decided to call it Seeing Eye to Eye, with bit of a pun on “AI to AI.” We knew then that the AI impact was coming but also knew we were in early days. In fact, we expected relatively little direct impact on the economy …
Stocks and Bond Charts We Believe Are the Most Important in the Long Run
I sometimes get asked about the most important things I consider when thinking about the longer-run outlook for markets. For me, the answer is easy. 1) In the long run, stocks track earnings because earnings drive returns. 2) In the long run, yields drive bond returns. That’s just two short sentences, but it’s the starting …