Insights Investments

I sometimes get asked about the most important things I consider when thinking about the longer-run outlook for markets. For me, the answer is easy. 1) In the long run, stocks track earnings because earnings drive returns. 2) In the long run, yields drive bond returns. That’s just two short sentences, but it’s the starting …

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” …

It’s now Day 43 of the shutdown and a resolution seems imminent. We know that the shutdown has been very challenging for a lot of people, but one small way it has impacted us is we haven’t received any official economic data for over five weeks, including payrolls, consumer spending, income, and production data. A …

“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” Bob Dylan “Subterranean Homesick Blues”   It continues to amaze me how fearful many investors get when faced with fairly normal market volatility. Last week, everyone became a market breadth expert and we were told only a few stocks were going up (which …

Tesla hosted their annual shareholder meeting this past week. While most annual shareholder meetings “put you to sleep” (in the words of Elon Musk), Tesla’s meetings often excite investors about the company’s future, and this meeting did just that. With shareholders overwhelmingly voting ‘For’ Mr. Musk’s pay package followed by a preview of futuristic technology …

High short-term yields and leftover anxiety from 2022 led to underinvestment in bonds in 2025. 2022 bond losses were unusual, but some bond volatility is not. 2025 returns were partially driven by yields being pulled down by rate cuts. We believe that process may have run its course for longer-term yields. Uncertainty still makes bonds …

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth …

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and …

We have come a long way since I last published a Carson Quilt chart, and the situation at that time for market returns was immensely different. Commodities were leading the way, up just 2.1% for the year, followed by fixed income, illustrating how the diversifying parts of a portfolio can be beneficial when the going …

“I look to the future because that’s where I’m going to spend the rest of my life.” George Burns, Actor and Comedian   Thanks to the near bear market back in April around the Liberation Day crash, 2025 joined the ranks of basically every other year in history that had some scary headlines and market …

Technology investors are walking away with a smile from this earnings season. Many of the largest companies in S&P 500 traded higher after their earnings report, with the notable exception being Meta. The fundamental results produced by these companies were largely cheered by investors and fueled earnings expectations, as well as spending expectations, higher. And …