Insights Investments

Rising market volatility tends to lead to changes under the surface of markets, even if the headline index performance remains fairly range-bound. This is especially true today, as volatility has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, and market leadership continues to shift. Much of the prior year’s leadership has sold off, while …

Micron’s earnings report last week continued the key theme of AI-related companies shattering expectations. The company reported $23.9 billion in sales against their guidance of $18.7 billion. This $5.2 billion beat compared to their expectations is the largest upside surprise in the company’s history and reflects the underlying momentum the semiconductor industry is experiencing. To …

Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week This week’s charts focus on the current oil situation, the FED,  and the inflation outlook, and why the market is pricing in potential rate pauses or even rate hikes. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, …

The recent market pullback has offered a useful reminder: in certain environments, traditional safe havens don’t behave the way you’d expect. Since the Middle East conflict escalated on February 27, both bonds and gold have failed to provide much cushion, and understanding why matters more than the headline. Bonds: The Inflation Problem Treasury yields have …

Life is transitory, and so are inflation shocks (caveat: on a long enough timeline). The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady in the 3.50-3.75 range at its March meeting, as expected. But all eyes were on the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (the “dot plot”), where each of 19 members jot down their estimates …

“If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” General Patton The quote above is one I use all the time and I’d put it at my second most used quote, after Mark Twain’s “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” While our team remains constructive on this bull market and we don’t see …

The most dangerous shortages are the ones you don’t see coming. What happens when global oil flow is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bottleneck for the world economy? In Episode 179 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, …

Let me start here: if inflation averages 2% over 10 years, that translates to an 18% cumulative loss of purchasing power, i.e., $10,000 of a typical basket of goods and services today would cost $12,190 in a decade. If inflation averages 3% over 10 years, that translates to a 26% cumulative loss of purchasing power, …

Thanks for reading this week’s Charts of the Week. This week’s charts focus on the current oil situation, labor markets,  inflation, macro data, and historical comparisons to prior performances. We’ll keep publishing Charts of the Week every Monday. To view this week’s Charts of the Week, click here: Charts of the Week: Mar. 9-13

March is synonymous with a “madness” in the air due to the NCAA tournament, which provides the country with a captivating energy that only comes once a year. The tournament is filled with underdog stories of schools and/or athletes, upsets that even the most calculated would not have predicted, and buzzer beaters that are heard …

“Don’t trust a skinny ice cream man.” Ben & Jerry’s Ben Cohen   The volatility and confusion continue. On Monday, hope was the war in Iran would be over soon, but that quickly lost steam and crude oil soared back up close to $100/barrel later in the week. There are a couple ways to look …