Nvidia Beats Expectations
Nvidia’s latest quarterly results exceeded both the company’s and investor expectations. The company posted quarterly revenue of $57.0 billion which exceeded the $54.0 billion of revenue the company guided for. This $3 billion beat was their strongest beat ever and underscores the demand the company is seeing. Earnings per share (“EPS”) of $1.30 exceeded the …
Where Is the Value?
The recent drawdown from all-time highs (-5% intraday at the time of this writing) has done nothing to tarnish a great year for broad equity markets. With any strong run in the market, examining where valuations end up as a result is a worthwhile exercise. Often, price appreciation is warranted on the back of strong …
Volatility, May I Meet You?
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks …
Three Record Breaking Streaks Are Over. How Worried Should Bulls Be?
“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving.” Albert Einstein Three long streaks ended yesterday and in today’s blog we will take a closer look at what it might mean. First off, I didn’t plan on writing this blog today. In fact, I had a longer blog all …
Surfing the AI Wave, and Avoiding a Wipeout
Two years ago, when we were writing our 2024 Outlook, we decided to call it Seeing Eye to Eye, with bit of a pun on “AI to AI.” We knew then that the AI impact was coming but also knew we were in early days. In fact, we expected relatively little direct impact on the economy …
Stocks and Bond Charts We Believe Are the Most Important in the Long Run
I sometimes get asked about the most important things I consider when thinking about the longer-run outlook for markets. For me, the answer is easy. 1) In the long run, stocks track earnings because earnings drive returns. 2) In the long run, yields drive bond returns. That’s just two short sentences, but it’s the starting …
Winter Is Here
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” …
5 Tailwinds for Markets
It’s now Day 43 of the shutdown and a resolution seems imminent. We know that the shutdown has been very challenging for a lot of people, but one small way it has impacted us is we haven’t received any official economic data for over five weeks, including payrolls, consumer spending, income, and production data. A …
Is This Really a Hated Rally?
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” Bob Dylan “Subterranean Homesick Blues” It continues to amaze me how fearful many investors get when faced with fairly normal market volatility. Last week, everyone became a market breadth expert and we were told only a few stocks were going up (which …
Tesla’s Big Vote
Tesla hosted their annual shareholder meeting this past week. While most annual shareholder meetings “put you to sleep” (in the words of Elon Musk), Tesla’s meetings often excite investors about the company’s future, and this meeting did just that. With shareholders overwhelmingly voting ‘For’ Mr. Musk’s pay package followed by a preview of futuristic technology …
Stocks Are to Lead Guitar as Bonds Are to Cowbell
High short-term yields and leftover anxiety from 2022 led to underinvestment in bonds in 2025. 2022 bond losses were unusual, but some bond volatility is not. 2025 returns were partially driven by yields being pulled down by rate cuts. We believe that process may have run its course for longer-term yields. Uncertainty still makes bonds …